Nba Point Spread Formula
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Using math to help predictthe outcome of a sporting event is something that has been done for years.That's what statistical handicapping is all about.
In recent years, there has been atendency to use the Pythagorean Formula to determine how many games a teamshould have won in any years based on its scoring, both for and against. It isfrequently used for baseball and the general premise is that 'Expectedwins = runs scored(2)/runs scored(2)+ runs allowed(2).'
Later, theexponent was changed from 2.0 to 1.83. The theory behind the method is thatteams who won fewer or more games than expected could be good wagers to see a reversal the followingyear.
The method has been altered fornearly all sports, which use the same premise, but use different numbers. Manytimes the method is referred to as the Pythagorean Expectation.
PythagoreanFormula in the NBAFor each team playing, you wouldneed its spread results for each of those three categories and you would thentotal them up.
Using a game between Philadelphiaand Boston at Boston for an example, let's assume the 76ers are 7-9 against thespread on the road; 4-4 on the road against .500 or better opponents; and 5-4on the road against divisional opponents. When you total the 76ers' spreadrecord:
On the road: 7-9
On road vs. 500+: 4-4
On road vs. division: 5-4
You will get 16-17.
For Boston, we'll use the following:On the road: 7-9
On road vs. 500+: 4-4
On road vs. division: 5-4
You will get 16-17.
At home: 10-6
At home vs. 500-: 6-5
At home vs. division: 6-4
When you total Boston's spread records you will get 22-15
The first step is to take the roadteam's spread wins (in this case 16) and add them to the home team's losses,which is 15, to get a total of 31. Next, take the home team's spread wins (22)and add them to the road team's losses, which total 17, to get a total of 39.
The next step is to square bothnumbers, hence the Pythagorean Formula name, and 31*31=961 and 39*39=1521.
Because thehome team is classified as A-squared, we will calculate the home's teamspercentage of covering the spread. The Pythagorean Formula has you divideA-squared by A-squared + B-squared, so our formula for this game will read'1521/1521+961 or 1521/2482=.613 or 61.3%, meaning Boston has a 61.3%chance of covering the point spread.
Patterson and Painter said to lookfor favorites with a greater than 70% chance of covering the spread orunderdogs with a greater than 58% chance of covering.
Nba Point Spread Formula Calculator
The formula is the same for collegebasketball in that you divide A-squared by A-squared + B-squared, but thedifference is the categories used. For the NCAA, I would use: home and away;favorite or underdog; and conference or non-conference.
Nba Point Spread Formula Chart
Using the Thursday, Feb. 7, 2013,game between Washington and UCLA in Los Angeles, lets assign the following forWashington:
Away: 6-3
Underdog: 6-3
Conference: 7-2
When you total Washington's record you get 19-8.
For UCLA, we'll assign thefollowing:
Home: 6-7
Favorite: 6-13
Conference: 4-5
When you total UCLA's record you get 16-25.
Adding Washington's wins to UCLA'slosses gives a total of 44 and adding UCLA's wins to Washington's losses givesa total of 24.Home: 6-7
Favorite: 6-13
Conference: 4-5
When you total UCLA's record you get 16-25.
When both numbers are squared, weget 44*44=1936 and 24*24=576. Now the formula will read 576/576+1936 or576/2512=.229, meaning UCLA has a 22.9% chance of covering the spread, so theplay would be on Washington. UCLA won 59-57 as 7.5-point favorites.
Like manyother articles, this is one of those that I am throwing out there for you toexamine and play around with. I wouldn't blindly wager on its games, but dosome tinkering and see if it still holds any value.Nba Spreads Today
