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Over the past few days the annual Symposium for Racing and Gaming has taken place at the University of Arizona. As usual many great ideas have been presented but if history repeats itself, which it usually does in horse racing, few if any will be implemented. Following are my top five ideas for the horse racing industry to implement and test in 2015. They are intentionally scaled back from what I think would most benefit the sport for reasons I will explain.
1. Lower Takeout Rates on WPS, Exacta and Daily Double
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Contrary to the beliefs of most horse racing executives lower takeout rates will increase wagering handle long term. Ideally takeout rates would be lowered on all wagering options but being a realist I'd settle for the wagering types most likely to increase churn. Win, Place, Show, Exacta and Daily Doubles represent the wagering options with the least risk and highest likelihood of success. Lowering takeout rates in these pools has a threefold positive affect.
First, the additional money returned to horseplayers with winning tickets will increase churn by increasing their bankrolls thus providing them additional funds to bet with on future races.
Second, these wagering options can be marketed to new players as low cost and low risk with a much smaller learning curve and a much higher success rate than the super exotics that are so heavily promoted now. This will keep them in the game longer and increase the chance of keeping them as long term 'customers'.
Third, the additional wagering handle generated would, over time, result in increased revenue to tracks, ADW's, and other bet takers.
I would set Win, Place and Show takeout rates at 10% and Exacta and Daily Double takeout rates at 12%. This would need to be implemented across the country and for at least two years to measure the impact. Based on historical evidence and economic models the wagering handle would almost surely increase and at a rate that would generate more revenue for tracks, ADW's, and bet takers despite the lower takeout rate.
The wagering menu has grown at almost every track in the past few years. Every new wagering option that is created is adopted by almost every track even when the pool size borders on comical. Is anyone interested in betting into a Pick 6 pool with $400 in it? How about a jackpot Pick 5 with only $3,000? The success of a few super exotics at a very few tracks has resulted in the dilution of the wagering menu at all tracks.
Let's start with the Pick 6. Only two circuits in the country attract enough wagering handle on the Pick 6 to warrant it's inclusion on the wagering menu. Southern California usually handles $100K or more on the Pick 6 and Gulfstream Park handles a sufficient amount on its Rainbow 6 to justify offering it. No other tracks, including the NYRA tracks, handle enough money on the Pick 6 to justify keeping it on the wagering menu, save for a few big days during the year. For NYRA, and other major racing circuits, it would be beneficial to scrap it and move the Pick 5 to the last five races of the day.
Next in line is the Super High 5, which rarely handles six figures. yet is offered at many tracks. This wager has run its course and has proven to be a failure at every track, so its extinction would not make very many horseplayers upset.
For other wagers, it would be beneficial to both the tracks and horseplayers if a minimum threshold were created by each track. If a pool is regularly short of the minimum it would make sense to either scrap it or to adjust the overall wagering menu. A perfect example is offering two Pick 4's and a Pick 5. If the three pools average $20,000 each, wouldn't it make more sense to scrap one of the Pick 4's and/or the Pick 5, which would increase the remaining pool(s)? Horseplayers would prefer to bet into two pools that handle $30,000, or one pool that handles $60,000, instead of three that handle $20,000.
Lastly, a massive reduction in jackpot wagers would benefit the sport in total. Almost every track has one or more jackpot wagers on their wagering menu. All are hoping to replicate the success of the Gulfstream Park Rainbow 6 but none have come close. These wagering pools are often very small and tie up wagering handle for weeks or months and in conjunction with the fact that they only pay out when there is a single winning ticket, severely reduce churn.
Additionally tracks need to consider changing their weekly schedules. Small and mid-level tracks should consider running on days that major tracks are not running. Instead of running on Friday, Saturday and Sunday when 50 other tracks are running it would be beneficial to run on Monday, Tuesday and/or Wednesday when only a handful are running.
A few summers ago Saratoga implemented a purse structure that increased the purse in main track route races with more than 8 horses for each additional horse. This gave owners and trainers incentive to run more often and gave horseplayers bigger fields, which results in higher wagering handle. It was a win-win situation.
While Saratoga limited the incentive structure to main track route races I would put it in place in all races. For main track races, set a base purse for fields of 8 and adjust it up or down based on the final field size. For turf races, set a base purse for fields of 10 and adjust it up or down based on the final field size.
In conjunction with 10% fewer races, the average field size would almost surely increase at every track that tested this plan and wagering handle would increase proportionally.
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Just as the number of races has not decreased in proportion to the declining foal crop neither has the number of graded stakes races. Week in and week out graded stakes with fields of 5, 6 or 7 horses are run across the country. There are so many that owners and trainers can pick and choose where to run and can avoid other top horses until the Breeders' Cup. These races attract more wagering handle than similar sized non graded stakes races but pale in comparison to the graded stakes with double digit fields.
I would start at the top and reduce the number of Grade I races especially those restricted to two and three-year-olds. For two-year-olds, the only Grade I races would be the four Breeders' Cup races. For three-year-old colts, the only Grade I races would be the Triple Crown races, the Haskell, the Travers, King's Bishop and Secretariat. For three-year-old fillies, the only Grade I races would be the Kentucky Oaks, the Test, and the Alabama. Additionally, no graded stakes restricted to three-year-olds would be run after August 31.
For older horses, the number of Grade I races would be cut in half, with the remainder being downgraded to Grade II. Current Grade II races would be downgraded to Grade III, and current Grade III races would be downgraded to listed stakes. Grade I races must have a purse of $500,000 or more, Grade II races must have a purse of $300,000 or more, and Grade III races must have a purse of $150,000 or more. The purse in graded stakes races would be distributed to the top 8 finishers.
Fewer graded stakes will result in increased field size and increased wagering handle. Paying down to 8th place will further incentivize running more often and will keep more horses in the sport longer. Horses will no longer be able to duck the competition and more rivalries will be created, which in turn could draw in more casual fans as well as main stream sports media coverage.
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About The Blog
Lenny Moon is the founder of Equinometry.com where he shares his thoughts on handicapping and betting horses and handicapping contests and WagerLogged.com a site designed to take the hassle out of one of the most important parts of being a profitable horseplayer: record keeping. You can also occasionally find him in the grandstand of Laurel Park and more often in a handicapping contest on Derby Wars. He can also be found on Twitter @Equinometry.
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